Millbrae Fire Assessment Presentation

The Tulchin Research results are in for the fire assessment survey at the past city council meeting November 26 for which the city paid $30,000.

They specifically added language to the proposed measure including "annual financial audits" and "citizen's oversight committee". Is there a coincidence these were the very things I was fighting for in my prior campaign - no, I believe it is not coincidence at all. I consider putting pressure on the council to include this language is a very small victory for keeping our town transparent and accountable with the money it gets.

You'll see at 4:36, they tailored their message around accountability and responsibility - whereas the message to sell the measure has never been sold in this way before.

Currently the poll stands at at 41% "definitely yes" and 27% "probably yes" with a +/- 5.72% margin of error. The base of support is much narrower in my opinion, given the trend of the past renewals of the measure (it is only going down). The sample size was only 268 home owners out of 5,100 homes in Millbrae.

The city paid $30,000 for them to poll 268 people, I simply don't see the value for the money paid. There was not enough due diligence done by Tulchin. A sample of 5% of homeowners is not enough data to extrapolate that data they claim they have - basic statistics would suggest the sample size chosen is a tad small.

A simple calculation of sample size shows that a 95% confidence level 302 samples should have been or a 99% 502 samples should have been taken. Stated simple: the math in choosing the sample size by Tulchin may have been incorrect.

Click here for a sample size calculator - easy to use. Plug in the confidence level, a margin of error of (5.72), and a population of 5,100 homes.

Here is the video:

City Council Video Click Here

I will be contacting the city with my proposal for a citizen staffed audit committee. I would like to committee to participate in the audit firm selection, review of audit findings, review/approval of the CAFR presented to the city, and to also participate in the fire assessment oversight.